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The Land of Atoni

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The sun was setting down and the temperature was dropping slightly. It was a different feeling to see the sun setting here at this mountainous range compared to seeing the sunset at Kupang bay. We were camping at Lelogama, a village about a three-hour drive from Kupang city. Kupang is the capital of Nusa Tenggara Timur Province, located in the southwest tip of Timor island, an island shared by both Indonesia and Timor Leste. The silence was a bit eerie. It was so quiet that we could barely hear anything. Our ears had gotten used to all the city sounds, the roaring motorcycles, neighbour kids’ crying, street vegetable vendors blowing their horns and, recently, more frequent ambulance sirene passing by as COVID cases worsened. None of these noises was there for us to hear. I couldn’t help but miss winter in Australia. The sight, smell, cold temperature and similar terrain did remind me of Australia. Lelogama was once a difficult place to reach. Government officials from Kupang had to tra...
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Understanding Market Cycles and the Crash Probability Matrix

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Looking back at history, every market boom has always felt rational  until it wasn’t.  The dot-com bubble in 2000 was a story of innovation that went too far. The 2008 crisis was fuelled by an obsession with home ownership and excessive leverage and 2020 was triggered by fear itself, a global shutdown that froze the world economy almost overnight. Each of these moments began with confidence and ended with correction. I’ve never personally experienced a market crash as an investor. But based on history, crashes don’t arrive overnight. They form quietly, over months or even years, as small imbalances build up beneath the surface. That’s what makes them so hard to predict and so necessary to prepare for. What a Crash Really Means A market crash isn’t just a fall in numbers, it’s a reset of expectations. In 2000, the Nasdaq lost about 78% of its value after the dot-com bubble burst. In 2008, the S&P 500 fell roughly 57% from peak to trough. Even the pandemic shock of 2020, t...
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Five Years of Learning: My Investment Journey

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  Looking back, my investment journey has been more than just about performance, it has been a process of growth, correction, and refinement. Each year taught me something different about money, patience, and decision-making. From mindset building to rule-based investing, here is the summary of what I’ve learned over the past five years. 2021 – Foundation and Mindset My first year of investing was all about building the foundation. I started with a simple belief that investing is not only about growing money, but also about growing discipline. I treated it as part of a bigger journey of self-development. In my 2021 reflection “Investasi dan Bertumbuh,” I wrote about the importance of patience, consistency, and focusing on long-term goals rather than quick wins. I didn’t chase performance because I was still learning what kind of investor I wanted to be. I learned that market volatility is not something to be feared but understood, and that the earlier one starts, the more time b...
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Beneath the Alpine Skies

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Notes from Switzerland Journey Some trips leave you with stunning photos. Others leave you with something quieter but deeper, a feeling, a shift, a kind of knowing that stays long after the bags are unpacked. For us, Switzerland was that kind of journey. We had been thinking about visiting Europe for a while, but we were never quite sure which country to start with. In the end, we chose Switzerland, it represents so much of what we love most: nature, mountains, and quiet landscapes. A couple of years ago, we lost both of our fathers, and not long after, our beloved companion Kayla, who had been part of our lives for thirteen years. Now that I’m reaching middle age, this trip became more than just a holiday. It was a reminder of how precious life is, and how lucky we are to still have time, time to travel, time to see the world, and time to simply be together. We started our journey by arriving in Zurich, but instead of staying, we crossed immediately into Italy to spend time in Milan a...
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Review Investasi 2024

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 Dikalahkan Pasar Lagi? Ternyata Tidak! Tahun ini, sebuah kejutan kecil terjadi. Setelah beberapa tahun sebelumnya IHSG selalu unggul, kali ini portofolio saya justru berhasil sedikit mengungguli IHSG. Memang bukan kemenangan besar—hanya beda tipis—tapi tetap, ini adalah langkah maju. Jadi, mari kita bahas perjalanan investasi saya di tahun 2024: bagaimana pasar bergerak, bagaimana portofolio saya berkembang, dan pembelajaran apa yang bisa saya ambil dari tahun ini. 1. Kondisi Pasar 2024: IHSG Vs. Dunia Kita mulai dari pasar saham Indonesia.  IHSG turun 1.58% sepanjang tahun 2024 , mencerminkan tantangan yang cukup berat di pasar lokal. Grafik di bawah ini memperlihatkan perjalanan IHSG tahun ini, di mana indeks sempat mencapai puncak di  7,905.39 , sebelum akhirnya turun ke  7,164.43  di penghujung tahun. Sebaliknya, di Amerika Serikat, pasar saham justru tampil cemerlang.  S&P 500  naik  24.74%  sepanjang tahun, dipengaruhi oleh pesatny...
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Dikalahkan Pasar - 2023 Review

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Kalah lagi, kalah lagi. Ternyata mengalahkan pasar itu tidaklah mudah. Di tahun ketiga ini, IHSG sekali lagi berhasil mengungguli return investasi saya. Yah, begitulah perjalanan investasi saya di tahun ketiga ini. Ini adalah update singkat tentang bagaimana investasi saya berjalan dan apa yang telah saya pelajari sepanjang tahun ini. Tapi sebelum saya membahas perkembangan portofolio saya, mari kita tinjau kondisi pasar di Indonesia dan di seluruh dunia sepanjang tahun 2023. Pada tahun 2023, IHSG mengalami berbagai peristiwa yang cukup signifikan. Meskipun terjadi fluktuasi, pasar saham Indonesia secara umum menunjukkan kinerja yang cukup stabil sepanjang tahun. Pada akhir tahun, IHSG mencatat kenaikan sebesar 3.45%, menunjukkan potensi pertumbuhan yang masih ada. Sementara itu, di Amerika Serikat, S&P 500 juga mengalami perkembangan yang menarik. Meskipun terdapat beberapa gejolak pasar, S&P 500 berhasil mencatat rekor tertinggi baru di akhir tahun, tetapi juga mencatat beber...
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Time is a friend and enemy in investing

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I'm writing this article for my good friend, N. I hope to help you by summarising the essential strategies I have learned so far. With the right strategies, it is possible to achieve your financial goals, including building a sufficient retirement fund. I will explore some options for investing and provide tips for managing finances. Firstly, it is important to create a budget to track your income and expenses. Knowing how much you spend and what you spend on is the foundation of good personal finance. One way to do this is to allocate a portion of your monthly income to different categories. For example, you could allocate 50% of your income to living expenses, 30% to savings and investments, and 20% to discretionary spending. Additionally, reducing your living expenses will allow you to save more for retirement. Next, start saving for emergencies. Aim to have three to six months of living expenses saved in a savings account. This will help you avoid going into debt in case of une...
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Perjalanan Investasi di Tahun 2022 (Part 4)

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Tidak terasa tahun 2022 hampir berakhir. Tiba saatnya memantau status perjalanan investasi selama tahun ini. Perjalanan investasi saya tahun ini cukup menarik dan tentu saja memberikan banyak pembelajaran.  Tingkat inflasi naik membubung tinggi sepanjang tahun. Pemerintah Amerika harus menaikkan suku bunga untuk menekan dan menurunkan laju inflasi ini. Akibatnya terjadi perpindahan dana dari aset saham ke aset lainnya seperti obligasi jangka pendek, deposito ataupun emas. Pasar saham Amerika pun jatuh cukup drastis. S&P500, Indeks saham gabungan Amerika, saat ini berada -19% dibandingkan awal tahun, dan bahkan pernah turun hingga ke titik -26%.  Pasar Saham Indonesia walaupun cukup resilien tetap saja terpengaruh karena para investor asing melakukan pemindahan aliran dana dari pasar saham kita ke Amerika oleh karena imbal hasil yang lebih menarik dengan kenaikan suku bunga oleh Pemerintah Amerika.  IHSG sendiri masih berada 2.6% lebih tinggi dari titik di awal tahun 2...
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